{"id":2837,"date":"2022-12-01T11:33:00","date_gmt":"2022-12-01T16:33:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/beomniscient.com\/?p=2837"},"modified":"2023-04-14T11:40:03","modified_gmt":"2023-04-14T15:40:03","slug":"its-prediction-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/beomniscient.com\/blog\/its-prediction-season\/","title":{"rendered":"Field Notes #022: It&#8217;s Prediction Season"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>From December 1st until January 1st, you\u2019re at risk of poisoning your mind with a bunch of marketing predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cThe future of content marketing is video.\u201d&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cAI content writing tools will replace SEO-focused content marketing.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cEvery software company will become a media company.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cSEO is dead.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/534705.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net\/hub\/534705\/hubfs\/Screen%20Shot%202022-12-01%20at%2011.00.50%20AM.png?width=2596&amp;upscale=true&amp;name=Screen%20Shot%202022-12-01%20at%2011.00.50%20AM.png\" alt=\"\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Predictions make great content, and they benefit the predictor (but not usually the reader). Why?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Most predictions are self-serving<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>There\u2019s no downside to making inaccurate predictions<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;Just like&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alexbirkett.com\/marketing-advice\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">giving advice<\/a>, the advice receiver takes on ALL the risk. If you, for instance, invest everything in AI content because that\u2019s what a thought leader says the future is, the thought leader suffers zero consequences when you fail because that future fails to materialize.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Plus, being a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/1907.11162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">great forecaster often has little to do with real-world performance<\/a>\u00a0(it\u2019s not how often you\u2019re right; it\u2019s how right you *are*).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All of us, inherently, create models of the future (AKA predictions). Some of us have finely tuned models due to vast experience, but even experts get it wrong. The thing to do is put our money where our mouth is (i.e. skin in the game, we take our own medicine) and always leave wiggle room for uncertainty.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the present moment, you can take past data to inform your prediction of the future, but these are really just distinct streams of probabilities. Perhaps there\u2019s a 10% chance that Future 1 occurs, but there\u2019s a 90% probability it doesn\u2019t.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So what\u2019s the solution? It\u2019s not to face the future blindly and naively, admitting that, because you can never predict the future with full certainty, you shouldn\u2019t even try.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br>Rather, it\u2019s to treat predictions as data points in your mental model, think for yourself, stay humble, and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Thinking-Bets-Making-Smarter-Decisions\/dp\/0735216355\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">think in bets<\/a>. No one can predict the future.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-recommended-reads\">Recommended Reads<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>1.  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto\/dp\/0812975219\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Fooled by Randomness (book)<\/a>\u00a0&#8211; This book is about luck, patterns, and randomness. We underestimated the role of luck and randomness in success and failure and future outcomes. Everyone should read this book.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ryanjfarley.com\/fake-case-studies-theyre-cheap-potentially-harmful\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">On fake case studies<\/a>\u00a0&#8211; Other than \u201cpredictions\u201d and trends posts, be wary of \u2018fake case studies\u2019 and teardowns. These, too, can be helpful, but take them with a grain of salt. The person writing them usually has no inside information or context and is usually painting the company\u2019s success with a large dose of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fs.blog\/narrative-fallacy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">narrative fallacy.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.alexbirkett.com\/marketing-advice\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The problem with marketing advice<\/a>\u00a0&#8211; I wrote this a few years ago after feeling frustration at the divergence of (strongly opinionated) advice at conferences. I realized that advice tells you more about the giver than the receiver. This piece covers what to do about that.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From December 1st until January 1st, you\u2019re at risk of&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2840,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[184],"tags":[],"wf_post_folders":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-2837","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-field-notes"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Field Notes #022: It&#039;s Prediction Season - Omniscient Digital<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/beomniscient.com\/blog\/its-prediction-season\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Field Notes #022: It&#039;s Prediction Season\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From December 1st until January 1st, you\u2019re at risk of poisoning your mind with a bunch of marketing predictions. \u201cThe future of content marketing is\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/beomniscient.com\/blog\/its-prediction-season\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Omniscient Digital\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-12-01T16:33:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-04-14T15:40:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/beomniscient.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Field-Notes-Blog-Header-5-1.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Alex Birkett\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@beomniscient_\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@beomniscient_\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Alex Birkett\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/beomniscient.com\\\/blog\\\/its-prediction-season\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/beomniscient.com\\\/blog\\\/its-prediction-season\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Alex Birkett\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/beomniscient.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/163f626994fa8a754f56bc9bdf747249\"},\"headline\":\"Field Notes #022: It&#8217;s Prediction Season\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-12-01T16:33:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-14T15:40:03+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/beomniscient.com\\\/blog\\\/its-prediction-season\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":458,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/beomniscient.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/beomniscient.com\\\/blog\\\/its-prediction-season\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/beomniscient.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/04\\\/Field-Notes-Blog-Header-5-1.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Field Notes\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/beomniscient.com\\\/blog\\\/its-prediction-season\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/beomniscient.com\\\/blog\\\/its-prediction-season\\\/\",\"name\":\"Field Notes #022: It's Prediction Season - 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